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Ag Market Commentary

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Mon Oct 19, 9:39PM UTC

Corn futures gained out of the weekend, closing the Monday session 2 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents higher. USDA announced a large corn export sale of 345,000 MT to unknown. Mexico also purchased 123,000 MT of corn for 2020/21 delivery. USDA’s Export Inspections data had 35.87 mbu of corn shipped on the week ending 10/15. That was up from 33 million LW and was 13 mbu above the same week last year. Almost all of the shipments, ~80%, were to either China, Mexico, or Japan – with 40% to China alone. MYTD corn exports were at 214.8 mbu, compared to 142.5 LY. NASS showed corn maturity was 97% as of 10/18, with 60% picked by that date. Harvest was up 19% from LW and running 17% ahead of average. In IA, 65% of corn has been harvested, compared to the 29% average. The final corn conditions for this year’s harvest was a 357 on the Brugler500 index. That was UNCH from last week, but down 19 from the initial corn ratings and 4 points ahead of LY’s final.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.05 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.10 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $4.12 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $4.12, up 3 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The soy complex was mixed on Monday with strength in meal. Beans were 0.3 to 0.41% higher on the first trading day of the week. Soymeal futures ended the session up 1.33 to 1.55%. BO futures were 42 to 46 points in the red at the closing bell. CME’s synthetic soy crush spread was $1.30 1/2 on 10/19, the highest since May 30 of 2019. USDA’s Export Inspections report showed that 2.174 MMT of soybeans were exported on the week ending 10/15. That was the 3^rd consecutive +2 MMT week and was 63% above the same week last year. Prior to this year, we had not broken the 2 MMT mark since 2017. China was the top destination on the week with 1.74 MMT of shipments. MYTD bean exports are at 423.24 mbu through week 7, last year it took more than 10 weeks to breach 420 million bushels of export. NASS noted that bean harvest progressed 14% on the week to 75% complete. The 5-yr average is 58%. Bean harvest in IA was 90% complete compared to the 52% average. In NE, 92% of soybeans were cut, which is 34 percent points ahead of the average. IMEA (Brazil) estimates that 8.2% of the soybean crop in Mato Grosso has been planted vs. the 38% average for this date.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.54 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.54, up 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.42 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.37 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal closed at $373.20, up $5.70

Dec 20 Soybean Oil closed at $32.53, down $0.46

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Domestic wheat futures came out of the weekend with gains. Spring wheat led the complex with 1.2% to 1.7% gains. HRW futures were 3 1/4 to 4 1/4 cents in the black at the closing bell. SRW wheat ended the first trade day of the week up by 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 cents. The weekly Export Inspections report from USDA showed 239,688 MT of wheat exports on the week. Ethiopia and Bangladesh were the top destinations on the week. MYTD 10.677 MMT have been exported, which outpaces last MY by 6%. Winter wheat planting progressed 11% on the week, with 77% of the 2021/22 crop planted. The 5-yr average is 72%. NASS noted that emergence was 51%, compared to 48% average. New crop ratings should be available in next week’s report. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry said their 2020 wheat output was 25.1 MMT, down 3.2 MMT yr/yr. Ethiopia issued an international tender for 280k MT of optional origin wheat.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.27, up 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.63, up 4 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.69 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The cattle complex fell back hard on Monday, a nickel off limit losses in feeders. Fat cattle closed +$3 in the red. Feeder cattle were $3.50 to $4.95 lower at the close. Nov feeders touched the $5 limit throughout the afternoon. The October 15 Feeder Cattle Index from CME dropped back 69 cents to $140.22. Monday cash activity had the week off to an early start. USDA noted very light starter sales in the South from $103-106. Cash sales started the week in NE with some limited $105 activity. Clean up business in the cash market was very thin on Friday, from $106-$107. For the week, sales were mostly near $108 with the wtd ave price at $107.61. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Monday, widening the spread to $17.90. Choice boxes were $209.74 in the PM quote, down by 29 cents. Select boxes had dropped $1.68 to 191.84. USDA estimates FI cattle slaughter for Monday was 118k head, 1,000 more than both LW and the same week LY.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $104.000, down $3.150,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $105.150, down $3.475,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $108.175, down $3.300,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.600, down $3.500

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $130.075, down $4.950

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $125.225, down $4.100

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Dec hog futures held on to a $1.62 gain at the closing bell, but the other front months were triple digits in the red on Monday. The CME Fresh Bacon Index was $214.50 for the week ending 10/16. That was up $14.03 cwt. and is the highest in October on record (going back to 2013). The CME Lean Hog Index was back down by 26 cents to $78.23 on 10/15. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $60.57 in the PM update, that was down $1.33. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was back down by $1.09 in the PM report at $98.10. Loins were the weakest, down by $5.95 in the PM report to $85.12 cwt. USDA estimated the Monday kill at 488,000 head. Which is 10k above LW, but down 2,000 from the same week last year.

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $71.425, up $1.625,

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $70.850, down $0.100

Apr 21 Hogs closed at $72.325, down $1.325

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Monday cotton trading pushed futures 110 to 124 points higher. NASS reported that 93% of the US cotton crop had open bolls as of the 18th. The average is for 89%. Harvest was reported at 34% complete, up 8% on the week and even with average. In TX, 42% was harvested which was 13% ahead of the average. In GA cotton harvest was 19% complete, lagging the 5-yr av of 32%. Conditions were a 306 on the Brugler500 index. That was down 1 point from last week, and still 15 points below the same week last season. Ratings in VA and OK were down the most on the week dropping 26 and 11 points on the index respectively. USDA said 4,935 bales were sold at spot for 65.84 cents/lb, in the Daily Spot Quotations report. The Cotlook A index was firm at 74.65 cents/lb on the 16th. The week’s AWP for cotton of 53.43 cents/lb.

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 71.16, up 124 points,

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 71.83, up 127 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 72.41, up 118 points

Jul 21 Cotton closed at 72.86, up 115 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by: <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /> Brugler Marketing & Management LLC 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022 Phone: 402-697-3623 Fax: 402-289-2353 E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a>   <div class="MsoNormal" align="center"> Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com/BruglerSampler">here</a> to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today! <hr /> Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com">Start here</a> </div> Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? <a href="http://www.agricharts.com/forms/ac_ag.php">Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.</a>